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This report has been commissioned by the Bells Line Expressway Group to provide an assessment of the economic impact of upgrading the Bells Line of Road to a high standard expressway. In particular, the aim of the report is to analyse the economic impact of the proposed Bells Line Expressway on the Central NSW Regional Organisation of Councils (CENTROC) region.

Currently routes to Western NSW from Sydney, the Great Western Highway and the Bells Line of Road, are characterised by very steep grades, tight curves and limited overtaking opportunities. The nature of the roads over the mountains limits growth of both passenger and freight transport to the west. There is a distinct need for an upgrade to the Bells Line of Road as the Central West is the only region adjacent to Sydney without road access of an appropriate standard. An adequate route between the Sydney Basin and the Central West region could facilitate growth and relieve the safety and congestion issues on the Great Western Highway.

The preferred option for the upgrade is a high standard 100-110 kph four lane expressway with a gradient genrally less than 7%. This type of road would be suitable for all types of vehicles including B-Doubles (SKM, 2004a). The total construction cost of the road is estimated to be between $2 and $3 billion with recurrent maintenance costs of 10% construction cost per annum (SKM, 2004a).

Road infrastructure investment can increase productivity, provide greater flexibility, facilitate innovation, reduce costs, improve efficiency and provide firms with a competitive advantage. This initial impact on existing businesses in the region is expected to be concentrated in those regions closest to Sydney and taper off to the west. The most significant increases in industry expansion are anticipated in manufacturing, transport and fresh market horticulture.

Tourism development as a result of the upgrade will be most marked in the areas that will become viable as day trips and short break holidays. Reduced travel time across the mountains will give the impression that western NSW is easier to get to and this will make it easier to get to and this will make it easier to attract domestic self-drive tourists, especially those from Sydney.

Shorter travel times between the CENTROC region and Sydney make it viable to commute or telecommute to work in Sydney, a trend evidenced in the Hunter region. It is anticipated that more people will move to the region to take advantage of affordable housing, attractiveness of the location and accessibility to Sydney. The establishment of weekenders, later used as Socio-Econimic Impact of the Bells Line Expressway 8 retirement homes can also have a positive influence on the economic development of the region over and above household expenditure impact.

The potential for growth in the CENTROC region is considerable. The construction of the Bells Line Expressway would act as a catalyst for private investment. Improved transport infrastructure increases the attractiveness of the region and makes the region a viable location for production and distribution facilities. These effects are most likely to be concentrated in the warehousing and manufacturing industries.

In the five years from completion of the Expressway, total economic growth induced by the expressway in the region is expected to be $268 million (4.5%) in GRP, $122 million (3.7%) in household income and 3,062 (3.9%) full time equivalent jobs. Furthermore, accident cost savings have been estimated in this report to be around $2.7 million per annum, with the average annual savings on vehicle operating costs and travel time determined by Sinclair Knight Merz (2004) to be $9.9 million per annum.

The proposed Bells Line Expressway will provide the CENTROC region with substantial benefits in terms of economic growth and road safety. The noteworthy economic and community benefits that would arise as a result of the construction of the Bells Line Expressway provide support to the argument for the upgrade.